Global solar installations are expected to grow 43% this year, to 73GW, according to GTM’s latest report, ‘Global Solar Demand Monitor, Q3 2016’.

　　(PV-Tech讯)根据GTM的最新报告《2016年第三季度全球太阳能需求监测》，预计今年全球太阳能安装量将增长43%，达到73GW。

　　2016 is set to be another record year for solar globally, after 2015 which had a total demand of 55GW, 10GW more than the previous year. The first half of 2016 saw a major uptick in demand driven by an unprecedented volume of installations in China and the UK, in advance of expiring capital incentives. Also in H1 2016, the US reached a record-breaking 1 million solar system installs, which further solidified the nation’s number 2 position in the global market, with 14.5GW, bolsted by the ITC extension. India completed 2GW of solar installs within the same time frame.

　　在2015年总需求达55GW，超过上一年10GW之后，对于全球太阳能而言，2016年被设定为又一创纪录的一年。2016年上半年看到的需求大幅上涨由中国和英国在资金补贴期满之前，前所未有的安装量推动。此外，2016年上半年，受到ITC延期的支持，美国创纪录安装一百万个太阳能系统(点击查看PV-Tech此前相关报道)，这进一步巩固了该国在全球市场第二的位置，达到14.5GW。同一时间，印度完成2GW的太阳能安装。

　　GTM forecasts a decline in the number of installations for the second half of this year, primarily led by China, which raises concerns of a demand imbalance for 2016 overall. GTM estimates that the UK and Japan will also follow suit, with India and the US to grow at triple digit rates. Regardless, the global market is set for a slowdown in 2017, expected to drop by 10% - linked to policy qualms in several large markets. China experienced a feed-in tariff (FIT) pullback of 11% and major grid curtailment. After lower FITs and a halt on new installations in three leading provinces, demand will pull back sharply in the second half of 2016. Equally, GTM expects a major drop in demand in the UK for the second half of the year, with no new utility-scale projects coming online and a quarterly cap on FITs for residential and commercial capacity.

　　GTM预计，今年下半年安装的数量将减少，主要以中国为首，这引起了对于2016年整体需求失衡的担忧。GTM估计，英国和日本也将步其后尘，而印度和美国将以三位数的速度增长。不管怎样，2017年全球市场将放缓，预计将下滑10%——与几个大型市场的政策疑虑(点击查看PV-Tech此前相关报道)有关。中国经历上网电价补贴11%的回落以及大规模的电网削减。在降低上网电价补贴以及三个主要省份暂停新的安装项目后，2016年下半年需求将大幅回落。同样，GTM预计，今年下半年英国需求将大幅下降，没有新的公共事业规模项目并网，住宅和商业装机容量的上网电价补贴达到季度上限。

　　European leaders overshadowed by Asian markets

　　亚洲市场盖过欧洲领导者

　　Previously, Germany, Italy, the UK and France were leading global demand on the strength of their FiT programmes until 2012 when these were scaled-back. Beginning in 2013, China overtook Germany as the country with the highest cumulative installations globally at 44GW, and has beaten Germany every year in annual installations since.

　　此前，德国、意大利、英国和法国由于其上网电价补贴计划的优势，成为全球需求领导者，直至2012年补贴计划被缩减。2013年开始，中国超越德国成为全球累计安装量最高的国家，达44GW，自此每年安装量都击败德国。

　　GTM reports that Japan and the US are close to overtaking Germany. Japan, at 10.2GW of installations in 2016, has fallen a few rungs in terms of global ranking, which can perhaps be attributed to new government regulations around FITs that are expected to strike-out around 30% of the nation’s 56GW pipeline of approved projects. GTM predicts a “sharp negative turn” for the market in 2016 which is expected to shrink by 12% year-over-year.

　　GTM报告，日本和美国即将赶超德国。日本2016年安装量为10.2GW，全球排名降了几级，这可能归因于围绕上网电价补贴的新政府法规(点击查看PV-Tech此前相关报道)，预计其使该国获得批准的56GW项目储备中30%左右罢工。GTM预计，2016年该市场遭遇“急剧消极的转变”，预计年同比将缩减12%。

　　Out to 2021, more than 20 countries will each offer >2GW of cumulative demand

　　展望2021年，超过二十个国家的累计需求将超过2GW

　　GTM also reports that global demand is rapidly diversifying as large-scale solar auctions and net metering schemes permeate markets beyond the current top three, with Latin America leading the way; as Mexico, Brazil and Chile are set to install a cumulative 26GW by 2021. Emerging markets across the globe are set to offer 2GW+ each by 2020.

　　GTM还报告，由于大规模太阳能拍卖以及净计量计划渗透到目前前三以外的市场，全球需求正在迅速多元化，拉丁美洲一路领先，墨西哥、巴西和智利到2021年将累计安装26GW。到2020年全球新兴市场将各自提供2GW以上。

　　GTM forecast the Middle East and Turkey to add 19GW from Algeria, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt and the UAE, with Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia adding 23GW by 2021.

　　GTM预计，到2021年中东和土耳其将从阿尔及利亚、土耳其、约旦、埃及(点击查看PV-Tech此前相关报道)和阿联酋增加19GW，泰国、菲律宾、韩国、台湾和印尼增加23GW。

　　作者：Danielle Ola，Solar Media，PV-Tech.org

　　翻译：李欣，责任编辑：肖蓓

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